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Formula + Sources

Fantasy Strategy Engine · F1 Fantasy edition

The engine is built around a simple fantasy truth: win the season by converting budget into points before the calendar runs out. Early and middle rounds value cap growth because it unlocks premium constructors and a second premium driver. Late rounds value raw points because there is less time for budget growth to compound.

Lineup Value

Net xPts + expected price move * budget weight + reliability adjustment

Net xPts subtracts paid transfer hits. Expected price move comes from F1FantasyTools price-change probability buckets, not a guaranteed budget prediction. Reliability adjustment uses the F1FantasyTools analyst payload fields `extra_data_info.dns_probability` and `extra_data_info.dnf_probability` when they are present.

Comprehensive

Budget weight changes with cap gap, stack gap, and races remaining

Early and middle rounds give price movement more weight because budget can still compound into premium assets. Once the team is close to the elite-stack target, or once the season is nearly over, the engine shifts harder toward points. League gap slightly reduces budget weight and tolerates more upside when you are chasing.

Max Budget Guardrail

Max xDeltaCost only if net-points loss stays under threshold

The budget tab is not allowed to recommend a silly punt that gives away the race week. It must stay close enough to Max Points Net to justify the growth.

Transfer Hit Logic

Paid transfer value = current-round net points + future budget utility

Extra transfers are treated as a real -10 point cost after free transfers. Comprehensive strategy will not recommend a heavy paid-transfer rebuild just because price movement looks attractive. It first compares against the strongest build that stays inside your free-transfer limit.

Context changes tolerance, not the rule

Early in the season, a single extra transfer can be reasonable when the budget gain compounds toward premium constructors and drivers. Near the end, or when the net-points loss is large, the engine becomes stricter. League position and points gap help the model decide whether upside is worth chasing.

Budget acceleration value = races saved to elite-stack floor x future elite-slot gain - paid transfer cost

The engine compares the current roster's expected price pace against the recommended build's expected price pace. If the recommendation reaches the two-premium-driver and two-premium-constructor floor earlier, the output estimates a future upside range using the races saved. This does not ignore the current-week transfer hit or weaker weekly scoring while building budget; it asks whether the earlier elite slot can pay that cost back before the season runs out.

Drop logic considers projection, expected price move, recent form, reliability, and salary-floor flexibility

When F1FantasyTools exposes race-result history, transfer explanations compare recent race averages alongside projected points and expected price movement. Salary-floor drivers are treated differently from mid-priced budget drivers because preserving the cheapest slot can matter when building toward premium constructors and a second premium driver.

The public formula exposes the decision philosophy and guardrails. The exact weighting can evolve as more race-week evidence comes in. That keeps the product explainable without freezing the engine into a static spreadsheet.